Is there a Google of AI?

Unfortunately, it seems that twitter/X is merging into Linkedin. These types of “get rich quick” posts have been increasing in popularity over the last few months. Luckily, I’m not here to talk about them. I am here to talk about the overwhelming number of AI tools and applications.

I have been in the AI space for only a few months now and have been diving in deep. I have seen an absolutely overwhelming amount of AI tools and apps. The market is completely saturated and overwhelmed. Not everyone can win, and no way will they all be able to stick around. So what is going to happen?

I think there is two possible routes (and a third guaranteed one).

Welcome to my FigJam designs, they aren’t supposed to be pleasing to the eye, but they hopefully help illustrate my point.

As I mentioned before, there are hundreds of new AI tools, most of which, I do not see turning into meaningful and profitable companies. I see two paths:

1) The Likely Path: Most of these tools will be copied or bought up by existing consumer and SaaS businesses. Especially on the consumer side, I do not see anyone making a dent. No one can compete with Apple, Google, and Facebook, they will always win at the consumer game. On the enterprise and Saas, I see the same thing, how will companies try to compete with Amazon Web Services or Google cloud? They can’t

2) The Unlikely Path: The “Google” or “Amazon” of AI emerges. This would be a company that brings AI to the consumer. It would excel at onboarding and teaching new users how to use the technology. This company would likely start with a massive consumer product, and transition to provide better business solutions, all utilizing AI (maybe Anthropic?) Think of how Google or Amazon started. They built a consumer product first then transitioned in business and enterprise solutions.

3) The Guaranteed Path: A few companies find a niche that is profitable and needed. I believe that we will find a small handful of companies that are able to find small niches where AI can help efficiency, and no bigger company wants to invest in exploring. These areas can and likely will be profitable, but it is unlikely that any of them will reach larger than $5-$10b valuation. (I hope I’m wrong here)

At the end of the day, I just don’t see how having hundred of consumer AI tools helps the consumer. We need a few tools that are extremely powerful. Anyways, this is just how I think the AI will shape out. So build your startup to be defensible and to be acquired.